Will El Niño Keep North Dakota Warm This Winter?

North Dakota is enjoying a very mild and, at times, record-breaking December when it comes to weather, and it's largely thanks in part to El Niño.

If you're not a weather nut, here is information on what exactly the weather pattern is, as well as how it could affect North Dakota this winter.

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What Exactly Is El Niño?

El Niño means Little Boy in Spanish. South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s. The full name they used was El Niño de Navidad, because El Niño typically peaks around December.

During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.

El Niño can affect our weather significantly. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.

El Niño has a significant impact on marine life off the coast of the Pacific. Upwelling brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface of the ocean during normal conditions. Upwelling decreases in intensity or ceases entirely during El Niño. There are fewer phytoplankton off the coast when the deep-water nutrients are absent.

This has an impact on fish that consume phytoplankton, which has an impact on everything that consumes fish. Additionally, tropical species that are typically found in colder climates may be introduced by the warmer waters, such as albacore and yellowtail tuna.

How Will El Niño Effect North Dakota This Winter?

El Niño conditions are still in place and have a better than 95% probability of continuing into the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.

There is a growing likelihood (65%) that this will develop into a powerful El Niño event. There is a 20% possibility that this event will go down in history.

El Niño events usually bring warmer and drier winter weather to North Dakota, but this effect can be neutralized by other climate features.

Autumnal temperatures are typically close to average, with a gentle (rather than a sharp) shift to winter-like conditions.

This winter is predicted to have above-average temperatures because of the ongoing El Niño. Winter will still bring some cold snaps, though, and there's an 11% chance that the season will finish below average.

Although there is a slight chance of below-normal precipitation (33–43%), it only takes one large snowstorm to raise our seasonal snow total by a significant amount.