What Will North Dakota’s Winter Be Like? Just Ask a Woolly Bear Caterpillar!

North Dakotans know winter can be unpredictable, but did you know that the fuzzy little woolly bear caterpillar might hold the secret to this year’s forecast? According to folklore, woolly bear caterpillars—also called woolly worms—are nature’s weather prophets, giving us clues about the severity of the upcoming winter based on their unique coloring.

How Does It Work?

Almanac.com says that If the woolly bear caterpillar has a wide rusty-brown band in the middle, expect a mild winter. But if the black bands dominate, brace yourself for a harsh, cold season. The idea dates back to the fall of 1948 when Dr. C. H. Curran, an insect expert from New York City, took a trip to Bear Mountain State Park with his wife. He collected caterpillars, measured their bands, and made his winter predictions based on their markings.

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Curran’s findings, though not scientifically rigorous, added fuel to the woolly bear weather lore. Over the next eight years, his research suggested that the caterpillars might actually be onto something! During years when the caterpillars had more brown than black, the winters were generally milder. Of course, Curran and his friends treated this experiment more like an excuse for fun than hard science. They even formed the whimsical “Original Society of the Friends of the Woolly Bear”!

Woolly Bears on Parade

Woolly bears became famous, and festivals celebrating their forecasting skills popped up around the country. One of the most famous is the annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina, where woolly worms compete in races to predict winter. Vermilion, Ohio, also hosts a yearly Woollybear Festival. Despite the fun, most scientists remain skeptical of the caterpillar’s forecasting skills. They argue that while the band may indicate the caterpillar’s age or health, it’s a stretch to link it to the severity of winter.

Ready to Read Your Own Woolly Worm?

If you’re eager to predict North Dakota’s winter, keep an eye out for woolly bears this fall. Look under leaves, logs, or even on roads—they’re most active during the day and searching for a cozy spot to hibernate. The caterpillar’s fuzzy body will freeze solid over the winter, only to emerge in May as the Isabella tiger moth.

So, as the days grow colder, grab your magnifying glass and start hunting for these tiny meteorologists. Will we have a mild winter or a bone-chilling one? Only the woolly bears know!