North Dakota February Forecast: Above-Normal Temperatures Expected Due To Strong El Niño

In the wake of Monday's record-tying temperature and Wednesday's record-breaking temperature, what kind of weather should North Dakotans anticipate in February?

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The monthly forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is now available.

According to their predictions, the Upper Midwest will still be under the grip of Super El Nino, which means that temperatures substantially above normal will persist.

What's a Super El Niño?

Meteorologists just call it a very strong El Niño, but they say this is one of the strongest on record. The difference in surface water temperatures in a specific region of the tropical Pacific Ocean from the long-term average serves as a gauge of its strength. 5 hours ago

Average North Dakota Temps

Eastern North Dakota

Central North Dakota

Western North Dakota

Precipitation

A wet day is one with at least 0.04 inches of liquid or liquid-equivalent precipitation. In Fargo, the chance of a wet day over the course of February is gradually increasing, starting the month at 5% and ending it at 9%.

For reference, the year's highest daily chance of a wet day is 39% on June 13, and its lowest chance is 5% on January 28.

Over the course of February in North Dakota, the chance of a day with only rain increases from 1% to 3%, the chance of a day with mixed snow and rain remains an essentially constant 1% throughout, and the chance of a day with only snow remains an essentially constant 4% throughout.

What Does This Mean For 2024?

Taking a look at the National Drought Monitor for North Dakota, half of the state (47%) is abnormally dry or worse, and if the Super El Nino continues and the skies don't open up, we may be in store for another dry and potentially fire-ridden year.