Warmer, Drier Fall Expected Across Much Of The Northern Plains

As summer continues to fly by, it's hard to believe that fall is just around the corner. While many of us are still enjoying warm days, backyard barbecues, and trips to the lake, some are already wondering what kind of autumn weather we can expect across the Northern Plains.

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, much of our region is expected to experience a warm and dry fall. The forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across central and eastern Montana, western and central North Dakota, and western and central South Dakota. Meanwhile, Minnesota is expected to see a cooler and drier autumn season.

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How the Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts the Weather Months in Advance

Whether you're planning to harvest crops, enjoy fall camping, attend football games, or simply take in the changing colors, a warm and dry forecast could make for plenty of comfortable days outdoors.

Of course, one question people ask every year is: How does the Old Farmer's Almanac come up with its long-range forecasts?

The publication says its predictions are based on three primary areas of study: solar science, climatology, and meteorology. By monitoring the Sun's activity, analyzing long-term weather patterns, and tracking changes in the atmosphere, forecasters look for signals that may provide clues about upcoming seasonal conditions.

Those findings are then compared against a 30-year statistical weather average compiled by government meteorological agencies. The current climate benchmark covers the period from 1991 through 2020, allowing forecasters to compare current conditions with long-term historical trends.

While no seasonal forecast can guarantee exactly what the weather will do months in advance, the Old Farmer's Almanac has built a loyal following over the years by providing long-range outlooks that many people enjoy comparing with what actually happens.

As always, it's important to remember that weather across the Northern Plains can change quickly. Even if the overall trend points toward a warmer and drier fall, we'll likely still see our share of cool mornings, windy days, and perhaps an early taste of winter before the season is over.

For now, though, if the Almanac's outlook holds true, residents across Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota can look forward to a pleasant autumn with plenty of opportunities to enjoy everything the season has to offer.

Feeding the Nation: A Look at North Dakota’s Most Valuable Crops

Farming is the backbone of America—98% of the nation’s 2 million farms are family-run, feeding an average of 166 people each year. Though agriculture makes up just 1% of the U.S. economy, it’s rich in tradition and diversity, with more African American, Hispanic, and Latino farmers than ever before. One in four are new to the field, and many have served in the military.

In 2022, U.S. farm exports hit a record $191 billion. According to Stacker, here’s how North Dakota’s top crops ranked by value—and why the Peace Garden State punches above its weight in feeding the world.

Gallery Credit: Scott Haugen