Just How Likely Is A Meteor To Hit North Dakota

The probability of a massive meteor striking North Dakota, or any specific location on Earth, is exceedingly low. To understand why, we need to delve into some astronomical statistics and basic probability calculations.

First, let's consider the total surface area of the Earth, which is approximately 510 million square kilometers. North Dakota covers an area of about 183,108 square kilometers. By dividing the area of North Dakota by the total surface area of the Earth, we get the proportion of the Earth's surface that North Dakota occupies.

Proportion = Area of North Dakota/Total Surface Area of Earth = 183,108 km2 510,000,000 km2 ≈ 0.000359

This means that North Dakota occupies roughly 0.036% of the Earth's surface.

Next, let's examine the frequency of massive meteor impacts. According to scientific estimates, large meteors (those capable of causing significant regional damage) strike Earth roughly once every 500,000 to 1,000,000 years. Let's use the more frequent estimate of 500,000 years for a more conservative calculation.

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Given the rarity of such events, we can calculate the annual probability of a massive meteor impact on Earth:

Annual Probability (global) = 1\500,000 = 0.000002

To find the annual probability of a massive meteor striking North Dakota specifically, we multiply this global probability by the proportion of the Earth's surface that North Dakota represents:

Annual Probability (North Dakota) = 0.000002×0.000359 ≈ 7.18×10−10

This result indicates that the annual probability of a massive meteor hitting North Dakota is approximately 0.0000000718, or about 1 in 1.4 billion.

While the statistical likelihood is incredibly low,  these calculations are based on averages and probabilities.

Actual meteor impacts are random events, and the distribution of impacts over time and space is uneven. For instance, smaller meteors, which burn up in the atmosphere, strike Earth much more frequently, but their impacts are less significant.