We’ve Pinpointed When North Dakota Could See Its First Snowfall

September Snow

North Dakota is no stranger to early snowfalls. We have even had September snowfalls before in North Dakota. It seems like it's pretty much a 50-50 proposition that we will see a significant snowfall even in early October in central and western North Dakota.

You may remember back on October 10th through the 13th in 2019, North Dakota saw a major snowstorm/blizzard. We officially saw around 17 inches of snow. Other areas in central North Dakota saw over 30 inches of snow. This came right before the weekend of the state pheasant opener. Travel was pretty much at a standstill for a couple of days, except in the far western portions of the state.

Record Breaking October Blizzards

This record-breaking October blizzard certainly left its mark by the time the storm finally began moving out of the area on Sunday. Total snow accumulations as high as 36 inches were observed near Harvey, with drifts over 10 feet tall (as high as some homes).

(SEE ALSO: When North Dakota could see its first frost or killing freeze)

After consulting with our meteorologists at Severe Weather Studios and looking at long-range weather models from different weather agencies, I have come up with a date when Bismarck could see its first official snowfall.

Bismarck's First Potential Snowfall in 2026

When will we see our first snowfall in Bismarck and the rest of North Dakota in 2026? That is always the million-dollar question.  Remember, you need .01, a tenth of an inch of snow, to generally be considered the first snowfall of the season. It also has to stick and not melt right away. Tough to even think about it when we are about to experience a very warm Labor Day weekend, that will have temps touching 90 degrees or better.

Let me stress again: I'm not a meteorologist; I'm just a weather nerd, but I have done my homework, and I have been surprisingly accurate over the years.

An El Niño Fall

We already know that September looks to be pretty warm as we are into an El Niño weather pattern.  Above-average temperatures are expected for much of the month.  We have nothing to worry about for a September snow. I don't even see a chance for a September frost.

October looks like it will start pleasant and dry, so we should be able to avoid any early October snowstorms. The rest of the month looks warm and mostly dry except for a system the week of the 18th. Again, probably too warm for snow. Temps will trend cooler as we head towards Halloween.

Accuweather

Let's move on to November. This is when we saw our first snowfall last year.

Accuweather

November looks to start fairly warm, but a system will move in the first weekend of the month that looks to bring cold enough temperatures for snow.

My FEARLESS Prediction

This year's first snowfall in Bismarck will happen on Monday, November 9th. Mark your calendars, and there looks to be an increased chance of more snow the rest of that week.

(I have to say, my predictions for the first snowfall have been pretty close to accurate for somebody without a meteorology degree.)

In the meantime, enjoy the fall colors and the warmer-than-average fall.  Don't worry, winter will get here soon enough.