Could North Dakota’s First Snowfall Be Arriving Soon?

North Dakota is no stranger to early snowfalls.

We have even had September snowfalls before in North Dakota. It seems like it's pretty much a 50-50 proposition that we will see a significant snowfall even in early October in central and western North Dakota.

You may remember back on October 10th through the 13th in 2019, North Dakota saw a major snowstorm/blizzard. We officially saw around 17 inches of snow. Other areas in central North Dakota saw over 30 inches of snow.

This came right before the weekend of the state pheasant opener. Travel was pretty much at a standstill for a couple of days, except in the far western portions of the state.

This record-breaking October blizzard certainly left its mark by the time the storm finally began moving out of the area on Sunday.

Total snow accumulations as high as 36 inches were observed near Harvey with drifts over 10 feet tall.  These drifts were as high as some homes.  Snow drifts between one and two feet were common in the central and eastern portions of North Dakota.

(SEE ALSO: Californians moving to North Dakota are in for a RUDE awakening)

I came across a graphic from our friends at the Bismarck Bubble on Facebook, who shared a CFS weather model graphic for a potential early October snowstorm in North Dakota this year.

They downplayed the weather model, saying signs are pointing to a warm fall. We concur. After consulting with our meteorologists at Severe Weather Studios, I have come up with a date when Bismarck could see our first official snowfall.

When will we see our first snowfall in Bismarck and the rest of North Dakota in 2025?

That is always the million-dollar question. Remember, you need .01, a tenth of an inch of snow, to generally be considered the first snowfall of the season. It also has to stick and not melt right away.

I'm not a meteorologist, I'm just a weather nerd, but I have done my homework looking at the long-range models, and after chatting with several agencies, here's what I have come up with for the first snowfall of 2025..

We already know that September looks to be pretty warm.  Above-average temperatures are expected for much of the month.  We have nothing to worry about for a September snow.

October will start out potentially wet, but it should be warm enough to avoid any early October snowstorms. The rest of the month looks warm and mostly dry except for a system the week of the 20th. Again, probably too warm for snow.

Let's move on to November. This is when we saw our first snowfall last year.

November also looks warm and dry except for the first week. Does that mean we could be looking at December for our first snowfall?

This has to be the LATEST first snowfall I have ever predicted before. It's finally going to cool off enough in early December that it will give us the likelihood of snow, and it will no doubt stick around for the rest of the season.

My FEARLESS prediction for the first snowfall for Bismarck is...December 2nd (my birthday, don't forget to send a card with money)!

(I have to say, my predictions for the first snowfall have been pretty close to accurate for somebody without a meteorology degree)

In the meantime, enjoy the fall colors and the warmer-than-average fall.  Don't worry, winter will get here soon enough.